2025 U.S. Open: Scheffler’s Challenge

Can anyone beat Scottie Scheffler?

That’s the big question at Oakmont this weekend. Golf has not seen someone this dominant since slightly post-prime Tiger Woods over a decade ago. It seems that the comparables between Woods and Scheffler continue to expand like space, never-ending.

At Quail Hollow, LIV was well represented with three Top 10 finishes in Bryson DeChambeau (T2), Jon Rahm (T8), and Joaquin Niemann (T8). The captains put on an incredible run with the former two in contention to win on both Saturday and Sunday.

The question of whether Torque captain Joaquin Niemann could hang with the world’s best on the biggest stage was answered. Jon Rahm continued his stretch of admirable major championship finishes, and Bryson DeChambeau was the main attraction all weekend.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by U.S. Open Championship (@usopengolf)

It seems like the PGA Championship was just yesterday. The LIV field went to Robert Trent Jones Golf Club for LIV Virginia. Joaquin Niemann eventually beat out a very tight field for his fourth win this season.

The PGA Tour completed three tournaments, including Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament which Scottie Scheffler dominated. The Tour’s most recent winner, Ryan Fox, turned out to be a huge surprise and could carry that momentum into Oakmont.

Table of Contents

The LIV Field – The LIV Invitees to Oakmont
LIV Golfer Tiers – The Field Ranked in Tiers
The PGA Tour Field – Who’s Hot, Who’s Not?
Since The PGA Championship: Winners and Top Talent
All Things Considered – Final Predictions and Rationale
The Top 10 at the End of Sunday

The Field

Josele Ballester

Last Professional Win: None (Reigning 2024 U.S. Amateur Winner)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 0
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: Not Invited
Vegas Odds: Over 10K
State of Play: Ballester, LIV’s newest addition made the jump to the pros last week at LIV Virginia. Tied for second-to-last place, Ballester’s LIV career did not start as planned as his 7-over par final score helped drag the Fireballs into last place. The rookie has played in two major championships prior to LIV, cut both times at the 2023 Open and 2025 Masters.

Richard Bland

Last Professional Win: U.S. Senior Open (2024)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 0
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: Not Invited
Vegas Odds: Over 10K
State of Play: Bland’s stellar play at of late has resulted in two admirable finishes: T37; 1-over par in the 2025 PGA Championship and T14; 2-under par in the 2025 Senior PGA Championship. The Cleeks’ lone representative to the U.S. Open is accurate off the tee and can still drive for big distances. Bland’s issue will be getting his approach shots to stick close to the pin as his putting accuracy from long range is wanting.

Bryson DeChambeau

Last Professional Win: LIV Korea (2025)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: Yes
Major Championships Won: 2
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: 1^st Place; 6-under par
Vegas Odds: +900
State of Play: Without doubt, DeChambeau will go into Oakmont as the favourite from the LIV field. Bryson will be followed by the cameras and fans everywhere he goes and he will love every second of it. Last season DeChambeau won at Pinehurst with one of the most famous bunker shots in major championship history followed up by a clutch putt to seal the deal. His finishes in recent major championships have been outstanding, only having been cut once at the 2024 Open and recording five Top 10 results in the past two years including his win at Pinehurst. On LIV, Bryson has recorded four straight Top 5 finishes, including a win two events ago at LIV Korea.

Tyrrell Hatton

Last Professional Win: DP World Tour Dubai Desert Classic (2025)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 0
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: T26; 6-over par
Vegas Odds: +5000
State of Play: Hatton’s finishes at major championships outside Augusta have left much to be desired. His best outing during the 2025 LIV season has been a T5 finish at Mexico City some time ago. Hatton remains a wildcard as he can put together a world-class round or two, but struggles maintaining a low score for four days straight.

Dustin Johnson

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by U.S. Open Championship (@usopengolf)

Last Professional Win: LIV Las Vegas (2024)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: Yes
Major Championships Won: 2
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: CUT; 9-over par
Vegas Odds: +8000
State of Play: Speaking of wildcards, DJ is the ultimate one going into Oakmont where he won the U.S. Open in 2016. The last two years of major championships have not been kind to Johnson, making the cut twice but fizzling out soon afterwards. Despite his prolific drop in performance, one cannot count out the reigning champ at Oakmont. DJ will need to rely on the information gathered in 2016 if he stands a chance to not only make the cut, but also compete with the contenders. His LIV season having been a mixed bag thus far, DJ is going into Oakmont with some confidence after his T10 finish at LIV Virginia, and helping push his 4 Aces into a podium finish.

Brooks Koepka

Last Professional Win: LIV Greenbrier (2024)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: Yes
Major Championships Won: 5
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: T26; 6-over par
Vegas Odds: +3300
State of Play: Odds makers do not seem to mind Koepka’s recent results in major championships which have not been pretty. Brooks has also failed to record a win on the LIV tour this season and has seen Joaquin Niemann match his record of career victories while the former has only had mixed results outside of a 2^nd place finish in Singapore. Always a threat to win big games, fans should have a good idea of how Koepka will fare based on the opening stretch of the first round.

Jinichiro Kozuma

Last Professional Win: Japan Golf Tour Sansan KBC Augusta (2024)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 0
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: Not Invited
Vegas Odds: Over 10K
State of Play: Kozuma has seen limited action in LIV this season but has made the most of his time in his new league, never finishing worse than 25^th place. Kozuma has a chance to make a name for himself outside of Japan as the extra attention he’ll receive from his LIV allegiance could put the spotlight on him if he turns out to be a surprise.

Marc Leishman

Last Professional Win: LIV Miami (2025)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 0
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: Not Invited
Vegas Odds: Over 10K
State of Play: One of the U.S. Open’s last additions, Leishman has the potential to make a lot of noise. A recent winner at LIV Miami, Leishman has had a respectable season on LIV this year outside of a near last place finish in Singapore. Leishman’s last U.S. Open was in 2022 in Brookline, Massachusetts where he finished T14 with a final score of 2-over par. Then with the PGA Tour, Leishman outdueled many of his colleagues who made the jump to LIV with him including Dustin Johnson and Joaquin Niemann. Going into Oakmont, Leishman currently sits in 8^th place in the LIV season-long individual standings.

Phil Mickelson

Last Professional Win: PGA Championship (2021)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 6
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: CUT; 15-over par
Vegas Odds: Over 10K
State of Play: Like Johnson, Phil has only made the cut twice in the past two years of participating in major championships. The U.S. Open still remains the lone major championship Phil needs to complete the Career Grand Slam, coming in second place six times of the course of his illustrious career. Phil will turn 55 years old the day after Championship Sunday. Who is to say if the window to finally win is closed or not, but Phil has not recorded a Top 5 finish at the U.S. Open since 2013. Thankfully, Mickelson is going into Oakmont with some confidence after a successful campaign at LIV Virginia, a tournament where Lefty was in contention all weekend, ultimately securing a T4 finish, bumping him up to 11^th overall on the season-long individual standings.

Joaquin Niemann

Last Professional Win: LIV Virginia (2025)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 0
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: Not Invited
Vegas Odds: +3300
State of Play: Niemann’s Top 10 finish at Quail Hollow finally proved that the Chilean superstar can indeed compete with the world’s best on the biggest stages. Joaco remains LIV’s top dog this season with four wins (nobody else has more than one) and currently claims 1^st place in the individual standings by a decent margin over Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm.

Carlos Ortiz

Last Professional Win: LIV Houston (2024)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 0
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: Not Invited
Vegas Odds: Over 10K
State of Play: Despite being 34 years old, Oakmont will only be Ortiz’s ninth appearance in a major championship, having made a cut just twice. Perhaps a late bloomer, Ortiz has been great on the LIV tour this season, recording four Top 10 finishes and currently sitting in 7^th place overall. Oakmont will be Ortiz’s first major championship appearance since the 2023 U.S. Open.

Jon Rahm

Last Professional Win: LIV Chicago (2024)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: Yes
Major Championships Won: 2
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: Did Not Play Due to Injury
Vegas Odds: +1200
State of Play: As it was in Quail Hollow, Rahm will go into Oakmont as a favorite to win amongst the LIV field. Rahm was the only golfer at Quail Hollow who could have possibly beat (more likely tied) Scottie Scheffler before the later ran away with the victory. Rahm’s last-minute collapse should have no bearing on his upcoming performance at Oakmont. The Spaniard sounded in good spirits after his T8 finish and remains in prime form. Nobody will be surprised in the least if Rahm pulls off this victory for his second U.S. Open win. Rahm’s streak/record of Top 10 finishes on LIV remains intact after a T8 finish at LIV Virginia.

Patrick Reed

Last Professional Win: The International Series Hong Kong (2024)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 1
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: Not Invited
Vegas Odds: +7500
State of Play: Patrick Reed’s absence from the 2024 U.S. Open was the first time the former Masters winner missed a major championship in a very long time. Patrick followed up a stellar 3^rd place performance at Augusta with a disappointing PGA Championship but will likely retain status as an outside contender. Though winless in 2025, Reed’s form on LIV is excellent. Unlike Augusta, winning at Oakmont would be a shock even though most fans know that he is fully capable of pulling this off.

Cam Smith

Last Professional Win: LIV Bedminster (2023)
Previous U.S. Open Winner: No
Major Championships Won: 1
Last Finish at the U.S. Open Pinehurst: T32; 7-over par
Vegas Odds: +5000
State of Play: Nobody knows what to make of Smith at this point. At 31 years old, the former Open winner should still be in his prime, but the recent results both at major championships and LIV have been disappointing for such a huge talent. The old trope is that if Cam can control his tee shots, the putter will take over and Smith will dominate. That has not been true for some time. Still, since his win at the 2022 Open, Smith has recorded three Top 10 finishes at The Masters, The PGA Championship, and The U.S. Open.

LIV Winners in 2025, The PGA Championship to The U.S. Open

Joaquin Niemann – LIV Virginia

LIV Field Ranked Tiers

Tier 4 – Extremely Unlikely

Junichiro Kozuma – Kozuma, a member of the cellar-dweller Iron Heads, is the longest of long shots to make the cut amongst the LIV field. Currently sitting in 38^th place despite playing in only three tournaments this season, Kozuma has skill, but we’re not sure if that will translate to success in Oakmont against the world’s best.

Joselle Ballester – Ballester’s LIV career began with a rocky start, finishing T50 at LIV Virginia. It may be some years before Ballester is able to compete at major championships, but the reigning U.S. Amateur is oozing with talent and potential.

Tier 3 – Makes The Cut, But Trails Off

Dustin Johnson – The last man to win a major at Oakmont, DJ gets the benefit of the doubt despite very poor performances at major championships the past couple of years.

Richard Bland – Bland has been fantastic the past couple of weeks but has also played a lot more golf than his peers. In his fifties, one has to wonder how much energy Bland will have compared to his colleagues twenty or thirty years his junior. There should be no doubt about Bland’s ability, just his longevity in the short term. Bland made the cut at the recent PGA Championship and had three good rounds for a respectable T37 finish.

Phil Mickelson – Unable to put together a decent performance at a major championship since the 2023 Masters, and the U.S. Open being the one trophy that still eludes Mickelson, the chances of Phil pulling this off do not look good. Oakmont is a more difficult course than Pinehurst, and one of the most difficult in the world. Mickelson’s recent play at LIV Virginia, including multiple incredible saved pars and his downright crazy short game, gives me hope that this will be a more successful major than ones of recent past. Important to note that even eight years ago in his forties, Mickelson did not make the cut at Oakmont.

Cam Smith – Cam Smith, a tale of two seasons. On LIV, Cam has been in great form and looking like his old self. The past three major championships have been a completely different story. Having failed to make the cut at a major since the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, Smith has had difficulty staying competitive. If Smith misses the cut for a fourth major in a row, rightly or wrongly, his stardom outside Australia will likely fade.

Marc Leishman – Leishman’s performance at the 2022 U.S. Open proved he can hang with the best players on the world’s most difficult courses. A last-minute addition to the field, Leishman is in good form this season with a recent win at Miami, a course renowned for its difficulty. Oakmont actually suites Leishman’s game better than most of the LIV field, 12^th overall in GIR and 15^th in scrambling, Leishman has what it takes to make a decent run this weekend.

Carlos Ortiz – Fans outside LIV probably don’t know that Ortiz has consecutive years with wins coming in at LIV Houston (2024) and The International Series Macau (2025). The Torque standout has proven he can win tournaments, but is an unknown when it comes to major championships, having failed to make a cut (often not even being invited) since the 2021 PGA Championship.

Brooks Koepka – Major championships used to bring out primetime Koepka, always in the mix for a huge win despite mixed results during the regular season. Brooks has two U.S. Opens to his name and has won a major as recently as of 2023. Brooks appears in Tier 4 because of his failure to make the cut at either August or Quail Hollow and a rather pedestrian season on LIV. A third consecutive missed cut would have major implications to his Ryder Cup status, as there are several indications he will likely be picked to represent the U.S. this year. It is usually a bad idea to bet against Vegas, but I do not feel as if the oddsmakers actually watch LIV as evidenced by their attitudes towards Koepka over the course of the season.

Tier 2 – Has a Decent Chance

Patrick Reed – Not one to be dismissed easily, Reed will be hungry to prove he belongs in all the major championships after not being invited to Pinehurst last year. His performance at Quail Hollow was a disappointing encore to a great showing at The Masters, but this feels like it will be a bounce-back performance for Captain America. Another Top 10 finish would likely push Reed back into the Top 50 of the OWGR.

Tyrrell Hatton – Hatton has been a mixed bag in 2025. It’s been a good while since winning on the DP World Tour at the beginning of the year, but Hatton hasn’t really threatened to win anything since. His T14 finish at The Masters however is encouraging, but he did have a rough go of it at Quail Hollow, finishing T60. Tyrrell has however made the cut the last three U.S. Opens including T27 and T26 finishes in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Tier 1 – Legitimate Contender

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by U.S. Open Championship (@usopengolf)

Bryson DeChambeau – From a spectator’s point of view, Oakmont just feels like a race between DeChambeau and Scheffler. Nobody is counting out the other big names like Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, or Jon Rahm, but do not be confused, all eyes will be Bryson and Scottie. The reigning U.S. Open champion takes on the man who just won the PGA Championship and is dominating pro golf. It’s PGA Tour versus LIV once again.

Jon Rahm – Although it was DeChambeau who finished runner-up at Quail Hollow, it still feels like that tournament was up for grabs for Jon Rahm, the only man who came seriously close to challenging eventual winner Scottie Scheffler on Sunday. Rahm is in excellent form on both LIV and the past three major championships he has participated in. Accurate drives, approach shots, and short game theatrics will all be on display. Once again, it’s likely to come down to how many of those super-close putts Rahm can actually sink as opposed settling for tap-ins.

Joaquin Niemann – Is he ready to take the next step? After securing his first ever Top 10 finish in a major championship at Quail Hollow everyone is expecting Niemann to start contending, truly contending, for a major championship. This means no more strings of missed makeable putts for Niemann, something that has prevented him from being taken seriously as a potential winner the past two majors. Can Niemann’s mental fortitude become that of a major champion? While I don’t like him as much as DeChambeau or Rahm, I would not be surprised to see another Top 10 finish.

The Competition

Top 10 in OWGR Top 10 in TUGR

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by U.S. Open Championship (@usopengolf)

Scottie Scheffler 1. Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy 2. Bryson DeChambeau
Xander Schauffele 3. Jon Rahm
Colin Morikawa 4. Rory McIlroy
Justin Thomas 5. Joaquin Niemann
Ludvig Aberg 6. Colin Morikawa
Russell Henley 7. Xander Schauffele
Sepp Straka 8. Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama 9. Justin Thomas
Bryson DeChambeau 10. Patrick Cantlay

2025 PGA Tour Synopsis Since the PGA Championship

Three PGA Tour tournaments between major championships doesn’t contain a lot of useful data to predict a number of PGA Tour stars that have a chance of winning at Oakmont, especially with several sitting out the RBC Canadian Open.

The only thing for certain is that Scottie Scheffler is back to being the most dominant golfer on Earth and will be the unquestioned favourite at Oakmont. It took Scottie awhile to get back to this level, his mantle previously usurped by McIlroy who had three wins between late January and The Masters.

Sepp Straka lurks somewhere in the ether. The only PGA Tour pro who has won multiple tournaments this season outside of Scottie and Rory, Straka made another great run at the Memorial finishing in 3^rd place.

Unfortunately for Straka the odds are likely not in his favour as the big Austrian has only made a U.S. Open cut twice and has never placed inside the Top 25. Still, a multiple tournament winner should not be dismissed so easily.

Could Oakmont produce a first-time major winner? Someone not named DeChambeau, McIlroy, or Scheffler?

A lot of people have looked towards Scandinavian stars Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland to finally break through and win the big one.

Aberg’s game, as evidenced at Augusta, is at its best when the greens are fast: something Augusta and Oakmont share. Viktor Hovland regained some of his elite 2023 form earlier this season after a dismal 2024.

What about Tommy Fleetwood who seems to always seems to end up near the top of the leaderboard, but can never seem to break through and pull off a win?

Could he capture a major championship before even winning his first PGA Tour tournament event? Stranger things have happened.

Keegan Bradley has been hot as of late. Bradley finished T8 at the PGA Championship and followed up that performance with a T7 finish at the Memorial. He currently sits at 18^th in the OWGR, but it has been 14 years since his lone major championship at the 2011 PGA Championship. Bradley does have some success sprinkled in at various majors since then.

PGA Tour Winners in 2025: The PGA Championship to The U.S. Open

Scottie Scheffler – PGA Championship (2)
Ben Griffin – Charles Schawb Challenge
Scottie Scheffler – The Memorial Tournament (3)
Ryan Fox – RBC Canadian Open

From Quail Hollow to Oakmont

Outside of Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, there’s no clear favourite, and it may be that McIlroy’s odds of winning have drastically decreased with a poor showing in Toronto last weekend.

The oddsmakers still love Xander Schauffele who won half the majors last season. Schauffele hasn’t been nearly as good as he was in 2024 but every weekend it feels like Xander is creeping back towards that 24’ form.

It was unfortunate that McIlroy opted out of the Memorial, a move that was heavily criticized by the media. It feels like the Memorial would have been a good Scottie vs. Rory matchup, and a litmus test for the favorite going into the U.S. Open.

To pile on Rory some more, he failed to make the cut at the RBC Canadian Open after quadruple bogeying the Par 4 5^th finishing the day with a score of 78. McIlroy would finish with the fifth-worst score by the end of Friday.

Perhaps a new challenger has emerged in Ben Griffin. Not only did Griffin win the Memorial but is currently on a hot streak, taking T8 at the PGA Championship and coming in 2^nd overall at Muirfield, a week after his win.

Lastly, New Zealand’s Ryan Fox was a surprise winner at the RBC Canadian Open. Despite a shortened field, Fox showed tremendous grit, outlasting Sam Burns in a multiple-hole playoff match that was so close the greenskeepers had to change the hole location to put an end to the tournament.

All Things Considered and Final Predictions

For LIV, performances at Oakmont are being predicted off very limited data from the PGA Championship which took place nearly a month ago, and only one regular season tournament in LIV Virginia. If we take the Top 10 from Quail Hollow (DeChambeau, Rahm, and Niemann) and the Top 10 from LIV Virginia (Niemann, DeChambeau, Mickelson, Rahm, Leishman, Johnson, Ortiz) the cross-reference still produces the same three names.
Time is of the essence for Jon Rahm. One of the favourites from LIV, Rahm’s recent tendencies to start major championships slowly have killed him. For Oakmont, being on your game means simply that you have finished the day at par with a margin of error of 1-2 strokes. If Rahm is anywhere near par by Friday night, he has a legitimate shot at winning his first major since 2023. If he’s at the middle or bottom of field who make the cut, I don’t see him digging himself out without two otherworldly rounds at Oakmont.
Oakmont rewards precision and punishes inaccuracy. It was ranked as the second most difficult golf course in America by GolfDigest in 2023. The greens are also incredibly fast, regularly reaching 14-15 on the Stimpmeter. This will likely favour golfers like McIlroy, DeChambeau, Rose, Reed, Scheffler, and Aberg who finished in the Top 10 at Augusta this year.
The last time Oakmont held a major championship was nine years ago. Much has changed since that time, so it’s all the more reason to understand that past performance does not guarantee future success. Dustin Johnson, the eventual winner, was in his prime, Bryson DeChambeau was twenty-two years old, Jason Day was the world’s number one golfer, and Scottie Scheffler, then an amateur, failed to make the cut.
Speaking of past performances, is Shane Lowry a favourite? Runner-up in 2016, Lowry’s major championship showings in 2024 have not been anything to write home about, but he does have 4 Top 10 finishes on The PGA Tour this year, adding a T13 finish last week at TPC Toronto, having never shot worse than a 68. Lowry has been making the cut with more frequency than earlier in his career, with his 2^nd place Oakmont finish being somewhat of an aberration back in the day.
You can see by a hole-by-hole course tour of Oakmont that just ‘grippin and rippin’ isn’t going to be the best idea for the long hitters. Fortunately for the most powerful drivers like DeChambeau and McIlroy, their short games and bunker play are elite. I wouldn’t count on either abandoning their 325+ yard drives. I would however bet on Scottie Scheffler playing a more conservative and tactical game than the other favourites. The best ball striker in the world will likely reliably get on the green in two or three (Par 4 and Par 5) if he stays out of trouble. Currently, Scheffler is the only golfer I would deem worthy of the label, “doesn’t make mistakes”.
Ben Griffin is my surprise pick to make a run on Championship Sunday. I say surprise because even though Griffin finished T8 at Quail Hollow and proceeded to win the next tournament and then place second in the Memorial, nobody is really considering him. Guys aren’t big names until they are. Griffin is not a big name, but could be after Sunday.

The Anticipated Results for the Top 10

10. Justin Thomas

9. Ben Griffin

8. Xander Schauffele

7. Shane Lowry

6. Rory McIlroy

5. Jon Rahm

4. Ludvig Aberg

3. Joaquin Niemann

2. Bryson DeChambeau

1. Scottie Scheffler

The 2025 U.S. Open starts this Thursday morning on multiple nationally televised channels, streaming services including Paramount+.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by U.S. Open Championship (@usopengolf)

U.S. Open Preview: Ranking the LIV Golf Field Ahead of The U.S. Open at Oakmont