HSBC have released a study proclaiming golf as the world’s most unpredictable sport, surpassing even tennis in this chaotic arena.
Over the past 20 years, golf’s major championship winners have been the least likely to hold top world rankings, highlighting the sport’s inherent unpredictability.
From 2004 to 2024, the average world ranking (WR) of golf’s major winners was 18, the lowest among individual sports tested.
Tennis, the second most unpredictable sport, saw major winners with an average WR of 10, an 8-point difference compared to golf.
Snooker champions typically ranked 10th or better, while badminton and squash champions averaged WRs of 4 and 3, respectively.
Public sentiment aligns with these findings, with 39% of respondents identifying golf as the most unpredictable sport to both play and watch, far exceeding football (19%) and tennis (9%).
Golf fans also reported the lowest confidence in predicting winners, trailing tennis fans by 10% and Formula 1 enthusiasts by 30%.
Golfers themselves admitted to inconsistent performances, scoring 10% lower in consistency than tennis players.
When it comes to major championships, The Open is the pinnacle of unpredictability.
Over the last two decades, The Open has displayed the greatest variation in winning scores among the four men’s majors, with a range from -20 in 2022 to +3 in 2008.
Analysis of the top 25 finishers over the past five years shows the highest score variability at The Open, with an average round-to-round difference of six shots per player.
Fans also find The Open particularly challenging to predict. For the upcoming event at Troon this July, 29 different potential winners were suggested, compared to just 11 for Wimbledon and 7 for the next Formula 1 season.
Scottish golfing legend Colin Montgomerie encapsulates this unpredictability: “You can be the best in the world at this game and still have no idea what’s around the corner.
As a player, it’s about playing those averages at times – how you react to the bad and the unlucky, that can be the difference between winning or losing.
It’s what makes the game so exciting, to watch and play – it’s rarely a straight line, but that’s what always brings you back.
As a Troon local, I know all too well how these bunkers and windy shores can affect the script – I can’t wait to watch the action unfold this week!”
Team sports, by contrast, are more predictable. Cricket is the least predictable team sport, with league winners averaging a WR of 4, while rugby, football, and F1 show even less variability, with winners averaging WRs of 3.
Jonathan Castleman, Managing Director, Global Head of Brand and Brand Partnerships at HSBC, remarks, “Sport and golf are full of unpredictable twists and turns and often echo life, which is why we love it so much as fans.
It’s all about the next shot we take – and just like a golfer needs a caddie and support team, we all need that network to help us see around life’s corners and achieve our end goals.”
The 152nd Open, taking place at Royal Troon from July 18th to 21st, promises another thrilling chapter in golf’s unpredictable saga.
HSBC continues its patronage of The Open, a partnership since 2011.
